Backlog Start-Up Visa: Who will be approved in 2025-2026? Analysis from the latest IRCC Annual Report and ATIP.

Based on three official data sources from IRCC – the Annual Report 2025, ATIP April 2025, and the Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028 – this article analyzes the backlog resolution trends of the Start-Up Visa (SUV) program during the 2024-2026 period.

Federal Business Class

The Federal Entrepreneur Program attracts highly skilled talent to support Canada's strategic economic growth.

This group includes the Start-Up Visa (SUV) program – designed to attract early-stage startups with high growth potential and job creation – and the Self-employed Persons program, which selects outstanding individuals in the arts or sports who can contribute to enriching Canadian cultural life.

In 2024, Canada welcomed a total of 7,635 people through these two programs, including principal applicants and accompanying family members.

Federal Economic and Business Immigration Data 2024

According to the table below, the target was 3,500-7,000. However, the actual figure (2024 Admissions) was 7,635. The actual number exceeded the planned ceiling (7,000), meaning IRCC processed or granted more PR than expected, indicating a significant clearance of the backlog from previous years in 2024.

These 7,635 individuals include both Start-Up Visa holders and Self-Employed Persons (data extracted from the Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration 2025, Federal Business Class page).

Federal Economic and Business Immigration Figures 2025

According to the plan, the immigration target is 1,200-3,000 in 2025. However, according to the A-2025 report (ATIP data as of April 30, 2025):

• Total number of applications approved: 265 (Approval 80 / Refusal 185)
• Approval rate: 30%
• The 80 in the table represents the number of applications. On average, one application is for 2–3 people, meaning approximately 160–240 people have been granted PR as of April.

However, the completion rate remains very low (~10% of the target).

Therefore, there are still approximately 2,000 PR quotas that can be granted in the remainder of 2025.

So, is there a possibility of a massive influx of PR in the last month of 2025?

IRCC typically speeds up processing in the fourth quarter (especially November-December) to meet its fiscal year quota. However, because the Start-Up Visa is a complex category, IRCC may accelerate SUV visa processing by the end of 2025 to reach its target of 2,000-3,000 people, but a "massive" surge is unlikely as applications require more thorough review.

Which applications are most likely to be approved in the last month of 2025?

Based on processing times and backlogs, the data below shows that only 4,400 applications submitted in 2021 or earlier remain pending. Therefore, it is highly likely that this backlog will be resolved in 2025.

Next are applications submitted in 2022, with a backlog of 6,600 applications.

However, due to the long submission time and the fact that many projects are no longer suitable, such as:

• The technology is outdated and not being updated.
• The business has been out of operation for a long time.
• There has been no progress or product development in recent years.

Therefore, it is likely that this backlog of applications will have a very high rejection rate, possibly as high as 70% as shown in the table above.

Therefore, applications submitted in 2021 and 2022 need to be quickly reviewed and updated to address the issues mentioned above in order to increase the success rate.

With 11,000 pending applications and a 30% approval rate, it fits fairly well with the 2025 plan of approving 2,000-3,000 permanent residency applications.

Which applications are likely to be approved in 2026?

After resolving the aforementioned backlog of applications, it is highly likely that applications submitted in 2023 and some in 2022 will be processed in 2026. With a limited approval quota of only 500-1000 in 2026, competition for good projects will be fierce.

Therefore, the project submitted in 2023 urgently needs updating to prepare for this selection process.

Source: IRCC Annual Report 2025 / ATIP April 2025 / Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028

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